Is the US a failed state? No, BUT

[mdlbear]

Yesterday I posted a link to this disturbing article[1], which describes the US as Modernity's first failed state. It provoked responses from both left and right, and led me to research just what constitutes a failed state[2].

It turns out that there's a way of measuring degree of failure[3], called theFragile States Index[4]. At first glance, the US looks pretty good: with a score of 36.7, it currently ranks 154th out of 178. Currently. Here's what the Fund for Peace, which maintains the index, has to say about that:

The United States has experienced significant political upheaval recently, and as a result has ranked as the fourth most-worsened country for 2018. Despite a remarkably strong economy, this economic success has been largely outweighed by social and political instability. However, we must be careful not to misunderstand the longer-term nature of this trend. Though some critics will likely be tempted to associate the worsening situation in the United States with the ascendance of President Trump, and what can generously be described as his Administration’s divisive leadership and rhetoric, the reality is that the pressures facing the United States run far deeper. Many “inside the Beltway” in Washington have long complained of a growing extremism in American society and politics, with an increasingly disenfranchised (if not vanishing) political center. The FSI demonstrates that this is no illusion – it is definitely happening. Indeed, on the ten-year trend of the three Cohesion Indicators (including Security Apparatus, Factionalized Elites, and Group Grievance), the United States is the most-worsened country in the world bar none, ahead of the likes of Libya, Bahrain, Mali, Syria, South Africa, Tunisia, Turkey, and Yemen. To be sure, the United States has nearly unparalleled capacity and resiliency, meaning that there is little risk that the country is about to fall into the abyss. Nevertheless, these findings should serve as a wake-up call to America’s political leaders (not to mention media influencers) that divisive policy-making and rhetoric that seeks to divide Americans for political gain can have very real consequences and can threaten the country’s long-term stability and prosperity. [5]

I have three things to add:

1. The United States may not be a "failed state" by this definition -- yet. But it has certainly failed a large number of its people.
2. The United States has also failed -- miserably -- to become a modern country. By many measures, it is far behind the rest of the developed world, and falling farther behind as its ruling elite continues to gain power.

The US is not a failed state, but it's failing. If the current trend keeps up, it will reach the "warning" level of 70 in less than 16 years.

References:

• [1] Why Didn’t America Become Part of the Modern World?
• [2] Failed state - Wikipedia
• [3] FSI Methodology | Fragile States Index
• [4] Fragile States Index | The Fund for Peace
• [5] Fragile States Index 2018: Issues of Fragility Touch the World’s Richest and Most Developed Countries in 2018 | Fragile States Index

Comments

[madfilkentist]

Normally I'm not up at this hour, but I was having trouble getting to sleep and decided to check DW. Thanks for the followup. Hopefully I'm awake enough to be coherent.

You mentioned "responses from the left and right." There was also my response. :)

I spent a little time looking through the Fragile States Index's criteria. It has some good points but also some that I can't agree with. In particular, under "Factionalized Elites," some things concern me. It asks, "Does hate radio and media exist?" "Hate" as an adjective in such contexts has no objective meaning, and in practice is usually a call for censorship. The questions "Are resources fairly distributed? Does the government adequately distribute wealth through its tax system and taxes?" assumes that wealth is the government's to "distribute" to its subjects. That's at least an obvious political bias.

Other points, though, are good, and a real concern is the tendency in the US to factionalism. As the part you quote mentions, it isn't just the Trump administration which is responsible for this. I think, though, that it's not as severe as it appears to be. It's strongest at the level of national politics, including Congress and the two big parties. At that level, people tend to place party loyalty far above any loyalty to principles.

Looking at the bigger picture, though, there's less cause to panic. Violent crime rates have fallen greatly over the past quarter century, though the decline has been less clear in the past couple of years. In the years 1963 through 1968, John F. Kennedy, Malcolm X, Martin Luther King, and Robert Kennedy were all murdered. In the 1970s, Time says "protest bombings were commonplace."

These are matters of public record, not just my "bubble," though I did personally encounter such events as Massachusetts Avenue clouded with tear gas and a friend's arm broken by a cop's gas grenade back in those days.

I suppose I've rambled enough and should go back to bed. The point is that while there are some seriously disturbing trends today, you and I have lived through times that were worse, at least by the measure of overt violence.

[siliconshaman]

I note that the political system in America is 'one bad day away from chaos' to mangle a quote. It is increasingly fragile as safe-guards are cut or undermined, and power is centralised in White House and the office of the President.

I do however agree with your assessment of the US being a failing state, and although I think your time scale is over-optimistic I do not disagree with the gist of it. All things being equal, it should chug on for few eyars more, maybe as much as decade, before it could truly be said to be a failed state. Unless of course, someone sets about addressing the very deep fundamental [and fundamentalist] flaws in American society, that Trump is the most flagrant symptom of.

I suspect that is unlikely.

[mdlbear]

>>I think your time scale is over-optimistic<<

Linear extrapolation usually gives a conservative estimate; with the Trumpistas in power it could easily go exponential. If it hasn't already -- I don't think there have been enough data points yet.

>>one bad day away from chaos<<

Definitely. Look at Hurricane Katrina for example. If Louisiana had been an independent country it would probably have qualified for failed state status.

[redsixwing]

I read but didn't participate in the last thread. This is really interesting, that there's ways of measuring such things and that the measurement actually backs up the things I've suspected and seen over the last years.

The breadth of your audience speaks well, I think. :)

Edit: Lost a thought; here it is.

I am currently failing at making this not be a tone argument, BUT.
I absolutely do not agree that the average citizen can't do anything. I may not be able to single-handedly fling back the encroaching fascism or ensure that all our elections are valid and trustworthy (and trusted, which is a whole nother problem) but I will be hecked if I can't make a few things better on the local scale.

If I cannot stop the desert, I can at least make an oasis. We'll see if I have enough water to last - I'm worried I don't - but I'm not alone, either.

[mdlbear]

Thank you.

>>I absolutely do not agree that the average citizen can't do anything.<<

You're right. Whether it matters in the long run remains to be seen, but it's worthwhile trying, if one can. I admire those who can, even on days (months? years?) when I'm not up to it myself.

[mdlbear]

>>Violent crime rates have fallen greatly over the past quarter century<<

"It’s important to note that the FBI reported a 7% increase in the violent crime rate between 2014 and 2016, including a 20% rise in the murder rate" -- it's noticeable on the graphs. It's also worth noting that none of these statistics include violence perpetrated by police and others acting in an official capacity.

It's too early to be certain, but I think a lot of that decrease has been due to policies that the Republicans are in the process of rolling back.

[stardreamer]

"Hate media" most assuredly does have an objective meaning. It's that media which overtly calls for discrimination, disenfranchisement, and/or violence against specific, usually marginalized, groups of people, and it's been on the rise in the US since the 1990s.

Violent crime is falling largely because of Baby Boomer effects; the population is currently aging out of the bracket in which most such crime occurs. This is at best a temporary effect, and domestic terrorism is also on the rise.

But go ahead and believe in your bubble... while it lasts. By then, of course, it will be too late for the rest of us, or for America.

[redsixwing]

You're still here, and writing. That's something.

I saw a quote the other day that said, "it's okay if you save only one life. It's okay if that one is your own."

[mdlbear]

Thank you. I've seen that quote a couple of times, but I never remember it when I need it.

[texxgadget]

Ive been noticing the same.

Further, Ive noticed the whole "MBA push to the bottom" thing,
and the likelihood that by 2030 half the software written will be written by machines.

Up to now, technology closes some doors and opens others.
As long as the displaced retrain and increase their skills, they
can move to those new jobs.

AT this point, we are heading for a brick wall.
You simply cant train everyone in the world to be a coder.

The net result is that you end up with a small cadre of very rich people and a world of dirt poor.
The rich dont spend enough to maintain the economy themselves.

The net result is that the Democrats will not lead us to Socialism.
It will be the Wall St Republicans who FORCE us into Socialism!


Ill go into more detail in a post of my own.