COVID-19: Episode 3: the view from Whidbey Island

[mdlbear]

Okay, it's officially a pandemic, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).

Here on Whidbey Island, there have been three confirmed cases of COVID-19 as of yesterday. Things are closing -- today is the last day for a lot of things. Consonance has been postponed, so I no longer have to be sorry I'm going to miss it. We canceled the family birthday party, which would have been this weekend, a week ago. S has canceled her Thursday volunteer work.

The name of the game right now is "social distancing". The idea being to slow down the spread of infections and flatten the curve -- spread the cases out over time rather than having them come in one huge peak that overwhelms the health care system. What little there is of it.

To be honest, I don't think it's going to be enough. But we'll do what we can, and hopefully get the Rainbow Caravan out of this alive.

Fortunately I'm an introvert. Social distancing is something I'm good at. (If only it were that simple.) The tricky part is going to be deciding when to cancel all upcoming appointments, lower the portcullis, and haul up the drawbridge. It's a two-pass algorithm: wait until one of us develops symptoms, and then start two weeks before that. Right.

It's a good time to plan on leaving the house as little as possible. Preferably not at all, but some of us have medical appointments. We have a reasonable stock of supplies -- I think we could easily stay here a couple of weeks; more if we have stretch it.

Notes & links:

Info and analysis
  @ FlattenTheCurve | COVID19 Update & Guidance to Limit Spread
  @ Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) fatality rate: WHO and media vs logic and mathematics
    – AVatorL's Blog - why deaths/cases is meaningless because of lag
  @ Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo - Medium (via nextdoor comment)

  @ Why We Are Ill-Prepared For an Epidemic Like Coronavirus | Time

Resource centers and trackers
  @ Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Resource Center | CIDRAP
    CIDRAP launches Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Resource Center | UMN
    " The goal is to make the CIDRAP COVID-19 Resource Center a comprehensive,
      authoritative, one-stop resource on COVID-19, complete with relevant information for
      public health professionals; members of the media; and international, national, and
      local policymakers or elected officials, "
  @ Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S. | CDC
    " This page will be updated regularly at noon Mondays through Fridays. Numbers close
      out at 4 p.m. the day before reporting. "
    " Now that states are testing and reporting their own results, CDC’s numbers are not
      representative of all testing being done nationwide. "

How to:
  @ Work in the Time of Corona – Alice Goldfuss good advice if you're new to remote work
  @ Cleaning through the coronavirus | MM excellent set of links
  @ Coronavirus prevention: 10 awesome songs to sing while you wash your hands

Closures, cancellations, etc.:
  @ Service/Program Changes and Cancellations - Island Senior Resources
  @ Trump suspends travel between US and Europe for 30 days
  @ stayinghomeclub
    A list of all the companies WFH or events changed because of covid-19

News and first-hand reports
  @ Thread by
    \@jasonvanschoor: From a well respected friend and intensivist/A&E consultant who is
    currently in northern Italy: 1/ ‘I feel the pressure to give you a qu… grim
  @ Coronavirus: nine reasons to be reassured | World news | The Guardian
  @ Coronavirus: Ten reasons why you ought not to panic 
  @ Statement on the second meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005)
    Emergency Committee regarding the outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
    " The Committee agreed that the outbreak now meets the criteria for a Public Health
      Emergency of International Concern "
    World Health Organization (WHO) on Twitter: "BREAKING" We have therefore made
    the assessment that #COVID19 can be characterized as a pandemic"-@DrTedros
    #coronavirus https://t.co/JqdsM2051A" / Twitter 
  @ COVID-19 – CMO Update and Overview – 3rd Edition | PartnerRe
  @ Notes from UCSF Expert panel - March 10 

Tl;dr: if you read nothing else, read FlattenTheCurve | COVID19 Update & Guidance to Limit Spread.

Comments

[madfilkentist]

I'm pretty good at the social distancing too, but this feels more like the world disappearing. I'm trying to figure out, for instance, why our condo board of directors meeting, which draws about six people, was cancelled while people are packing themselves into stores. A friend of mine asked, "Until when?" That's what I wonder.

[archangelbeth]

I think "as long as possible" is the goal. The longer, the better, to flatten the curve and maybe the necessary herd immunity percent will also go down, if we're very very very very lucky.

This all sucks. I don't like 2020. Plague and no flying cars.