Something to consider

[mdlbear]

Here's an article on the apparent link between the sudden drop in the US crime rate in the 1980's and the legalization of abortion in 1973. The evidence looks pretty solid, and what's more it makes sense. I've often noted that the economic and social benefits of legal abortion need to be considered; this is of course a heretical position to take in the current American theocracy.

The link was ganked from a friends-locked post in which it was used as an example of why the author doesn't allow debate in her journal. It's closely related to the reason I don't allow anonymous comments here -- people are more likely to be polite when they have to put a name on their comments. (I know, it's not a guarantee -- free accounts are, well, free.)

Comments

[tagryn]

Steve - Rowan had a post about this a couple months back here. Most of the commenters were supportive of the idea. For me, the researchers are putting too much weight on correlation to try to prove causality - I'd like to see a multivariate study by them which controls for the factors they mention before accepting their casual link. I also don't agree with the underlying eugenical implications of embracing a "abortion prevents criminals" perspective.

[sdorn.livejournal.com]

Ah, the fascinating speculations of Freakonomics (and an earlier article in the Quarterly Journal of Economics). While I only got my baby-graduate degree in demography (i.e., a masters), I do remember one fertility formula that makes clear the contribution of abortion to total fertility (or, rather, the reduction of it). And for some eastern European countries, it was rather amazing how much abortion was used as birth control.

Levitt and Dubner have some interesting ideas, but the logic is wrong in a few respects. Because Americans are so mobile, it's extraordinarily problematic to tie abortion rights in the mid-1970s to what older adolescents are doing in the 1990s. The legality of abortion is not the same as access to abortion, as many activists (on both sides) will explain. And there are several states (especially Florida) where youth crime increased in the early 1990s, long after the supposed presence of Roe should have tipped the balance the other way, according to Levitt and Dubner.

I think abortion should be legal, for a variety of reasons, but this is not particularly persuasive. I wonder if there's been a response in refereed journals yet.