After the Information Age?

[mdlbear]

What comes after the information age

We have all learned a narrative about the history of economics that goes rather crudely like this: for most of human history, economic surplus could be derived from agriculture, and great feudal estates could be built on it. Then during the Industrial Revolution, agriculture became commoditized and value moved to manufacturing. After that, value moved to information.

Furthermore, to remain profitable, each stage of economic growth had to adopt techniques from later stages: agriculture had to become more like manufacturing, and then both had to adopt information-rich practices.

But the Information Age was surprisingly short. In an age of Wikipedia, powerful search engines, and forums loaded with insights from volunteers, information is truly becoming free (economically), and thus worth even less than agriculture or manufacturing. So what has replaced information as the source of value?

The answer is expertise. Because most activities offering a good return on investment require some rule-breaking--some challenge to assumptions, some paradigm shift--everyone looks for experts who can manipulate current practice nimbly and see beyond current practice. We are all seeking guides and mentors.

I'm not sure I entirely agree. I think creativity and craftsmanship come into it, too. They're not the same thing, though they often occur together. I would also add community and collaboration. Not all value is economic.

Comments

[idea-fairy.livejournal.com]

Something that may or may not be significant:

The Age of Agriculture lasted millennia.

The Age of Manufacturing lasted a century or two.

The Age of Information appears to have lasted only a few decades.

I'm reminded of what happens inside a massive star after it has used up its hydrogen and starts fusing heavier and heavier elements. Each new stage in the process takes less time than the one before, until the whole thing goes KABLOOEY!

[mdlbear]

Fodder for the predictors of a "Singularity". Alternatively we could be in for centuries of stability in which no one technology dominates.

The singularity is more fun to write about, but I don't think I'd want to live there.

[idea-fairy.livejournal.com]

The analogy still holds with no Singularity, since less massive stars don't go supernova but instead just dwindle down to a white dwarf or some such. So that could be your long quiet peaceful time.