Some predictions for 2004

[mdlbear]

1. Linux on the Desktop: 2004 will be the year when Linux is finally widely acknowledged as being ``ready'' for desktop use, both in the office and at home. It's been perfectly useable for several years, of course, but a few high-profile, large-scale defections from the Microsoft camp (e.g., Israel and China) will make people take notice.
2. Linux on the Go: A couple of $799 Linux laptops have already appeared, to go with the $199 desktop machines already available from Fry's and Walmart. I expect to see some of the big players (e.g., HP and IBM) get into the game. Possibly Sharp, who already have a Linux-based PDA. It's possible that someone will introduce a Linux laptop or tablet that isn't based on the x86 architecture, since Linux doesn't care and the ARM and PowerPC architectures give you more bang for the watt.
3. Poor Little SCO: The SCO group's lawsuit against IBM, which it seems was originally intended to be just annoying enough to get them bought out, will continue to backfire as IBM proceeds to make an example of them to serve as a warning to others. The actual trial date isn't until 2005, so we're unlikely to see heads on pikes until then unless the SCO team admits defeat early. The countersuits will continue regardless.
4. VOIP Meets WiFi: We may start to see cell phones equipped with WiFi (802.11) wireless networking, but it's more likely that one of the makers of portable phones, e.g. Uniden or Panasonic, will notice that they're already operating in the same band and can pick up a lot of cool features (and avoid interference with the household network) if they switch to WiFi. As soon as one does it the rest will follow; local phone companies may have to make the transition to being flat-rate bandwidth providers sooner than they expected, or get trampled in the rush.
5. WiFi Hotspots Go Free: It's hard to compete with free; places like Starbucks that try to charge for wireless net access may start to notice that they're losing business to places that use free access to lure customers. Whether they notice or not, free hotspots will proliferate.
6. California and Bust: Since Ahnold seems to be staying true to his Republican tax-fighting principles, one or more of the following will happen: (a) Many -- maybe most -- cities, counties, and school districts go bankrupt. (b) Taxes will go up anyway, only they'll be called user fees or some other euphemism. (c) The 2004 budget process will be a trainwreck that will probably end up in the courts. (d) Ahnold will get recalled, but Cthulhu (elected by voters tired of picking the lesser of two evils) may not be much of an improvement.